近50a来塔里木河干流年径流量变化趋势及预测   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

陈忠升  陈亚宁  徐长春 《干旱区地理》2011,34(1):43-51

根据塔里木河干流1957-2008年的年径流量监测数据,利用Mann-Kendall非参数技术检验和R/S法,对干流年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析,并在此基础上采用滑动t检验法和Mann-Kendall法对其突变点进行检验,最后运用方差分析外推法和叠加趋势预测模型对干流水文周期和未来径流量变化进行分析和预测.结果显示...  相似文献   

气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7  

张利平  杜鸿  夏军  徐霞 《地理科学进展》2011,30(11):1370-1379

气候异常变化导致洪涝灾害、干旱等极端水文事件的发生及其增加的水灾害风险正成为人类生存所面临的重大挑战。近年来,开展气候变化背景下流域极端水文事件的变化趋势、发生机理及其对气候变化的响应与预测研究正逐渐受到国内外众多学者的关注。本文从极端水文事件的定义、研究方法、水文极值分布函数、观测事实及模拟研究等方面分析评述了极端水文事件问题的研究现状和研究成果。在此基础上,讨论了研究现状存在的问题并对该领域未来研究方向进行了展望。  相似文献   

西南山地森林变化对洪水频率影响的模拟     

程根伟  石培礼  田雨 《山地学报》2011,29(5)

森林砍伐和恢复改变了流域洪水形成条件,将影响河流洪水的总量与洪峰形态,但是选择合适的技术来进行准确的分析评价仍然是个难题.采用流域分布式水文数学模型(SWAT)对四川梭磨河径流过程进行模拟,得到不同森林覆被率的洪水过程和洪峰的频率分布.针对各种森林情境下的洪水过程模拟,发现对于中小尺度流域,良好的森林覆被可以减小洪水大小30％～ 40％,而且其中森林覆被率在35％ ～ 40％之内具有最显著的滞蓄洪效益,它与完全的森林覆被对在洪水的影响差异仅在5％以内,这对于我国西南生态保护与恢复工程的实施决策具有重要参考价值.  相似文献   

秦岭南北河流不同尺度特大洪水对比研究     

刘科  查小春  黄春长  庞奖励  周亚利  薛小燕 《干旱区地理》2015,38(3)

以秦岭南北的汉江上游、渭河为例,对比分析了万年以来洪水发生的时间、流量的差异,并探讨了气候变化与洪水发生的联系。结果表明:在长时间尺度上,秦岭南北的汉江上游、渭河均有古洪水事件的沉积记录,汉江上游的洪水流量远大于渭河流域的洪水流量,洪水发生时间主要集中在4 200~4 000 a BP和3 200~3 000 a BP这两个时间段内;对季风气候变化分析表明,4 200~4 000 a BP和3 200~3 000 a BP是季风突变气候恶化的两个转折期,气候突变使得秦岭南北河流在这个时间段均有古洪水事件记录,但因测年分辨率的限制,似乎秦岭南北洪水发生时间具有一致性。在短时间尺度上,对秦岭南北实测洪水分析发现,虽然大多数年份秦岭南北没有洪水同时发生,但在个别年份内秦岭南北还是有洪水同时发生情况;从华西秋雨角度分析表明,秦岭南北的汉江上游、渭河处于华西秋雨核心区,但因多种因素的影响,在多数情况下秦岭南北洪水发生的时间并不都是完全相同。研究成果有助于从水文学角度在长时间尺度上揭示秦岭南北地区主要河流洪水发生规律,深化特大洪水事件与季风气候的关系;同时也加深了对秦岭地理分界作用的认识,对秦岭南北因地制宜的进行防洪减灾和水资源的合理调度开发有重要的实践意义。  相似文献   

东亚地区夏季大气环流季节循环进程及其在区域持续性降水异常形成中的作用   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

廖清海  陶诗言 《大气科学》2004,28(6):835-846

利用32年(1968～1999年)月平均NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,分析了东亚地区夏季大气环流的季节循环进程, 并以1991/1994年为例,探讨了东亚地区夏季7～8月对流层上层环流的季节循环提前和延迟与气候平均的季节循环的差异,以及在江淮流域持续性降水异常过程中的作用,证实东亚地区季节循环的变异对形成我国东部地区持续性降水异常,特别是7月旱涝起着重要作用,江淮流域旱涝一般是和东亚地区大气环流季节循环的提早或推迟一个月左右相对应.通过波作用量的动力学诊断分析,研究了欧亚大陆沿副热带西风急流传播的异常准静止波的传播特征,并从以副热带西风急流为波导的准静止波(或者遥相关)角度对东亚地区夏季7～8月环流季节循环进程提前和延迟的可能机制作了分析.  相似文献   

On the exact shape of the horizontal profile of a topographically rectified tidal flow     

L. R. M. Maas  J. T. F. Zimmerman  N. M. Temme 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(2):105-129

Abstract

Starting from the nonlinear shallow water equations of a homogeneous rotating fluid we derive the equation describing the evolution of vorticity by a fluctuating bottom topography of small amplitude, using a multiple scale expansion in a small parameter, which is the topographic length scale relative to the tidal wave length. The exact response functions of residual vorticity for a sinusoidal bottom topography are compared with those obtained by a primitive perturbation series and by harmonic truncation, showing the former to be invalid for small topographic length scales and the latter to be only a fair approximation for vorticity produced by planetary vortex stretching. In deriving the exact shape of the horizontal residual velocity profile at a step-like break in the bottom topography, it is shown that the Lagrangian profile only exists in a strip having the width of the amplitude of the tidal excursion at both sides of the break, and that it vanishes outside that interval. Moreover, in the limit of small amplitude topography at least, it vanishes altogether for the generation mechanism by means of planetary vortex stretching. The Eulerian profile is shown to extend over twice the interval of the Lagrangian profile both for production by vortex stretching and by differential bottom friction. These finite intervals over which the residual velocity profiles exist for a step-like topography are not reproduced by harmonic truncation of the basic equation. This method gives exponentially decaying profiles, indicating spurious horizontal diffusion of vorticity. In terms of orders of magnitude, the method of harmonic truncation is reliable for residual velocity produced by vortex stretching but it overestimates the residual velocity produced by differential bottom friction by a factor 2.  相似文献   

Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps     

B. Wilhelm  F. Arnaud  P. Sabatier  O. Magand  E. Chapron  T. Courp  K. Tachikawa  B. Fanget  E. Malet  C. Pignol  E. Bard  J. J. Delannoy 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):189-199

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

SHRIMP zircon age for an Early Cambrian dolerite dyke: An intrusive phase of the Antrim Plateau Volcanics of northern Australia     

L. M. Hanley  M. T. D. Wingate 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(6):1029-1040

The Antrim Plateau Volcanics, Australia's largest Phanerozoic flood‐basalt province, originally covered an area of at least 300 000 km² across northern Australia. Stratigraphic constraints indicate that the Antrim Plateau Volcanics are of Early Cambrian age (ca 545–509 Ma), although previous attempts to date the Antrim basalts by radiometric methods have been inconclusive. We present an ion microprobe U–Pb zircon age of 513 ± 12 Ma for the ～250 km‐long Milliwindi dolerite dyke in the west Kimberley. The dolerite is geochemically identical to basalts of the Antrim Plateau Volcanics, and was probably a feeder dyke for basalts that have since been eroded. It is suggested that the Antrim Plateau Volcanics extended hundreds of kilometres further to the west than recognised previously and may have once covered part of the Kimberley block.  相似文献   

基于潮汐变化的潮滩淹没模型构建     

赵晓亮  郭鹏  辛欣  刘芳 《测绘工程》2010,19(5):11-14

潮汐的变化带来海岸线的不断演变,位于潮间带的潮滩在潮汐作用下,会产生周期性的淹没与干出。从研究潮汐变化模型与潮滩地形模型入手,对两种模型进行运算、融合,构建出基于潮汐变化的潮滩淹没模型。实验表明,此模型可以很好满足潮滩淹没三维可视化仿真的需要。  相似文献   

防汛决策指挥地理信息系统构建关键问题研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王晓国  闫正龙  申玮玮 《测绘科学》2010,35(4):41-42,131

根据陕西渭河下游流域现有资料、防汛实际应用需求及未来发展趋势,对基础地理、防汛专题等空间静态数据及水雨情等实时信息进行整合处理和有效集成,并基于开放性的面向服务的B/S架构体系理念以及空间和属性数据一体化、多源数据无缝集成的建库思想,开展了融信息实时监测、三维决策支持、地图查询定位、防汛预案展示、信息采编维护等为一体的流域防汛决策指挥地理信息系统的构建以及系统架构设计、数据组织处理、数据建库优化、地图缓存配置、数据共享交换等关键问题研究,可对提高流域防汛决策管理能力、减少洪涝灾害损失及构建人水和谐环境提供有力保障。  相似文献